Mobile Realtyreality

Some Alabama economists aren't as optimistic as the economists who told a national survey they believe the recession is already over.

More than 80 percent of economists believe the U.S. recession is over and an expansion has begun, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics that was released Monday.

But these same economists said they expect the recovery will be slow as worries over unemployment and high federal debt persist.

"The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines," said NABE President-elect Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.  Read more from IQRealEstate.com>

Today there is an article in the Press-Register, "Fairhope vows to be walker friendly".  According to the story,

A national pedestrian advocacy group plans a visit to the Mobile Bay area next week, including street-corner meetings at dangerous intersections in downtown Mobile, and talks with Baldwin and Mobile county political and business leaders.

In recognition of the group's visit, the Fairhope City Council on Monday passed a resolution promising that the city in the future will follow the "complete streets" concept. Now, when street or sidewalk projects are planned, Fairhope must consider not only autos, but also buses, bicycles and pedestrians.

"We don't have any other city in the state of Alabama on record advocating complete streets. Fairhope is the first," said Sharon Z. Roerty, executive director of the Washington D.C.-based nonprofit National Center for Bicycling & Walking.

Read more>

The Alabama Business Confidence Index™ (ABCI) is a forward-looking measure of Alabama business sentiment.  The Center for Business and Economic Research at The University of Alabama announces results of the fourth quarter 2009 survey, its 32nd consecutive quarterly survey of the state’s business executives.

SUMMARY:  Business confidence continues to improve heading into the fourth quarter of 2009.  Up 1.3 points to 47.3, the ABCI indicates that economic conditions will be slightly better than in the third quarter.  However, a broad-based recovery that includes both output and employment will not be achieved this quarter.
Key findings of the fourth quarter ABCI include:

• Business confidence rose 1.3 points to 47.3, suggesting that the pace of improvement will slow from the third quarter, when the ABCI jumped 14 points.  With the index serving as a comprehensive measure that considers employment and profits as well as components of GDP, panelists do not see a broadly-defined recovery beginning in the fourth quarter.

For the full report, see News and Announcements, Center for Business and Economic Research ...

For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June, and are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008. The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004, and the last time sales were higher than a year earlier was November 2005.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he is encouraged. “The housing market has decisively turned for the better. A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales,” he said.

The monthly sales gain was the largest on record for the total existing-home sales series dating back to 1999. Read more>

The Mobile Area Association of Realtors, in conjunction with the Gulf Coast Multiple Listing Service, is kicking off a marketing campaign on August 12^th at 9 AM with a press conference featuring Mayor Sam Jones and Dr. Donald Epley of the USA Mitchell College of Business Center for Real Estate Studies, to spread the word that the residential real estate market in Mobile, Alabama is much better than national statistics would have you believe.

This campaign will encourage potential homebuyers and sellers to visit ThingsAreReallyMovingHere.com to find out the facts and learn more about buying and selling a home in Mobile, Alabama. The campaign will feature radio, billboards, newspaper and on-line advertising, all pointing people to the micro site, ThingsAreReallyMovingHere.com. On this site consumers can receive buying and selling tips, read monthly real estate reports provided by the USA Center for Real Estate Studies, hear what our partners are saying about the local economy and real estate and register to win a gift certificate from Lowe’s.

MAAR has partnered with the City of Mobile, Mobile County Commission, Mobile and Saraland Chambers of Commerce, Mobile Bay Convention & Visitors Bureau, USA Center for Real Estate Studies, Home Builders Association and Alabama General Contractors to help spread the word and present a unified front to the public regarding the housing market.

Large numbers of Realtors are jumping into the social networking scene and are actually seeing results in rising sales. But just because one technique such as blogging doesn't work for one agent, doesn't mean it won't work for another. A lot depends on one's willingness to learn and stay ahead of the curve in ever emerging technology tools.

But even in the new age of social networks, Twitter, and numerous other Web based marketing tools a lot of agents are turning to some old tricks to get listings sold. That and a little good luck and/or old fashion salesmanship skills.

Sunday's Mobile Press-Register featured an interesting article on step's agents are taking to boost business. Holly Brunson of Dauphin Realty talks about burying a statute of St. Joseph in the front yard of one of her listings.

 "The day after burying a statue of St. Joseph in the seller's yard, Brunson had an offer on the house, a showing and a bunch of calls. St. Joseph, the patron saint of the family and household needs, will stay put until the house sells, she said, adding, "He's not going anywhere."

Barbara Reeves said most of her buyers come from the Internet. "I have six Web sites, a blog and 20 micro sites," said the agent at REMAX By The Bay in Daphne. "I go on the theory if one site doesn't come up, the other one will."

For more, see From prayer to Facebook, agents try whatever works – al.com.

While much of the focus this summer has been on the Middle Bay Lighthouse and whether or not to move it onshore to prevent further deterioration, the endangered Sand Island Lighthouse is gaining some recognition. Sand Island will be honored with a stamp to be released this week. The Sand Island Lighthouse is among five historic landmarks chosen. The other four sites to be honored include Mattagorda, Texas, Sabine Pass, Louisiana, Biloxi, Mississippi, and Fort Jefferson, Florida.

For more on the stamps and celebration planned for this week, see Biloxi Lighthouse gets makeover, stamp.

Appraisals have always been key to refinancing. Traditionally, the mortgage amount could not exceed the property’s current market value. Those with Adjustable Rate Mortgages stuck with unaffordable mortgage payments, or those tempted by historic low interest rates have good reason to want – or need – to refinance their loans. Luckily, the federal government has introduced programs to help.

The Obama Administration’s Home Affordable Refinance Program, launched early this year, allowed refinances for those whose first mortgage was as high as 105 percent of a comparable market analysis (CMV). A July expansion now allows participation by borrowers current on payments, but up to 125 percent “underwater.” This especially helps those in down markets, such as Las Vegas, where about two-thirds of current mortgage holders owe more than the worth of their homes. Nationwide, 4 to 5 million homeowners whose mortgages are owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac might reach more affordable monthly payments through the program, which falls under the broader Making Home Affordable initiative.

Those with government-based Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans also have new refinance opportunities thanks to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The revised single-family loan limits now reflect the higher loan limits set by the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 or the Housing and Economy Recovery Act of 2008, all determined by county or metropolitan area. Effective through the end of 2009, those limits range from $271,050 to $729,750 and permit FHA to insure loans on amounts up to 125 percent of the 2007 area median house prices. For more, see Government Programs Mean Easier Refi’s – WalletPop.

In a recent study out of the Center for Real Estate Studies, University of South Alabama it is reported that the average sales price for June increased a modest 0.2 percent from $150, 403 to $151,121. The number of sales declined slightly from 303 in May to 296, and the average days on the market declined to 81. The highest volume of properties sold is in the $100,000 to $149,999 price range with 99 which increased from 94 in March. The total number of sales from $0-$149,999 represents 62.2 percent of the Mobile market. Adding the additional 54 sales in the $150,000-$199,999 price range is 80.4 percent of the 296 properties sold.

The price range of $300,000-$499,999 had 16 sales which increased from 12 sales in March, and is comparable with the 16 properties sold in June, 2008. Transactions over $500,000 declined to 1 sale from 4 in March which is below the 7 sold at this time in 2008.

The latest revised U.S. numbers show a very healthy 15.7 percent increase in the number of sales, and concurrently, a decline of 1.2 percent in the average sale price of $208,800. The U.S. median sales price dropped by 1.9 percent to $166,600 and the estimated inventory declined to 5.2 months for April. The increase in sales and decline in inventory reflect the foreclosed homes that are driving the numbers up and average prices down. In addition, there may be some initial impact from the buying incentives that Congress has implemented through new financing programs and tax incentives especially for lower priced properties.

The Mobile market is still holding its own. It should begin to see the impact of national stimulus programs soon. It is still a good time to buy, and still a good time to sell.

One number not shown in this report is the average number of months needed to sell the existing inventory. One rule of thumb given by the National Association of Realtors is that 6-8 months represents a healthy market. It gives the buyer a good choice of alternative properties from which an informed selection can be made. Simultaneously, a sufficient number of properties for sale provide good competition to assure that the desired price is competitive.

In April, 2006, an average of 4.47 months was required to sell the existing inventory of properties. In April, 2009, the Mobile number has risen to 11.4 compared to 10.1 for the U.S. The 11.4 months should be viewed as another reason to buy in the current market with an increased inventory.

Additional data and information can be found at http://cres.southalabama.edu.

This article is more than just about Mobile although I have only posted some portions that mentioned the city. The writer also discusses Monroeville, New Orleans, and other surrounding areas. We have always thought Mobile was a locale not familiar to a larger portion of the US and even the rest of the state of Alabama It’s our ‘little secret’ that Mobile is always hopping with plenty to do socially with hardly ever a dull moment and thriving despite a downturn in the economy on a national level.

Many of the more than 30,000 tourists who trek up to Monroeville each year start out in Mobile. The city has a population of 200,000, or double that if you include the suburbs. That is more than enough to support a lively gay scene. New Orleans is a little more than a two-hour drive away. After Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005, thousands of evacuees permanently relocated in Mobile.

Seated on Mobile Bay, which opens onto the Gulf of Mexico, Mobile very much resembles New Orleans. In fact, Mobile is the birthplace of Mardi Gras in the United States, not New Orleans. It began there in 1703, 15 years before New Orleans was founded. The city celebrates Mardi Gras with a series of celebrations, including 34 Mardi Gras parades in the two-and-a-half weeks leading up to Fat Tuesday. The most sought-after of all the Mardi Gras balls is the one put on by a gay organization, the Order of Osiris (http://www.orderofosiris.com). The event has been growing in popularity since it began in 1980. It is usually held around the beginning of the city’s Mardi Gras celebrations. The city’s gay pride celebration is in April and it is marked by a series of activities and events spread out for three days and highlighted by a parade. This year, it featured a concert by Jennifer Holliday.

Despite the recession, tourism has remained strong in Mobile because it is still an easy and inexpensive drive for people coming from nearby cities and towns throughout the Gulf region. And unlike marquee cities like Las Vegas, New Orleans, or even San Francisco, which can raise public relations issues for executives spending corporate money for conferences, Mobile is seen as a more modest place to host a convention.

All of downtown Mobile is easily walkable and the gay bars in the downtown rainbow district are all within steps of one another. Mobile bars are allowed to stay open around the clock and it is a very late night scene. The only exception is on early Sunday morning when bars are prohibited from serving booze from 2 a.m. until noon. But many are licensed to as private clubs. That means they can stay open all morning on Sundays. You have to be a member to buy a drink at a private club but you can buy a one-day membership for as little as $1. The rules say you have to be sponsored by another member, but they can arrange that on the spot. For the full story in the Bay Area Reporter, see Mobile and beyond: Surprising Alabama.

What would it take to make Mobile a perfect city for you? — better restaurants, more major shopping venues, an amusement park, parks, or professional sports teams? When asked these questions, I’m sure we would all give somewhat different answers for the most part. Obviously there are certain traits we all would like to see — a sustainable economy, more assessable healthcare, better roads, etc.

In a recent study by Terri Denard, an instructor at Samford University, she compared what we want with what we currently have in Mobile.

A perfect Mobile would have a better airport, more professional sports, better public transit, additional walking paths and better schools.

On the other hand, in the real world, Mobile already boasts a comparatively strong economy, low cost of living, a good climate and courteous residents (for the most part).

That was the consensus verdict of 30 community leaders polled last year for a qualitative study designed to get people thinking about their perfect city and how it might compare with Mobile.

Studies that rate “quality of life” factors for various cities have gained in popularity as communities jockey — much as corporations do — for what amounts to geographic brand identity. A city’s positive reputation can help it lure new industry and accompanying jobs.

Mobile’s pursuit of German steel manufacturer ThyssenKrupp and the players involved in the Air Force’s contract to build airborne refueling planes influenced her decision to study Alabama’s port city, Denard said.

People and companies now select locations “just like picking a can of coffee off the supermarket shelf,” Denard said.

Before cities can promote themselves, they must identify their strong points, and the information needs to run true, she said.

“Just as in the corporate world, city reputations can be lost overnight.”

For more on this study, see Picture your perfect city from a recent issue of the Press Register.

Pending home sales show a sustained uptrend, rising for four consecutive months with very favorable housing affordability and a first-time buyer tax credit boosting activity, according to the National Association of Realtors.  For more, see the article in Realty Times.

For more indepth information on the local Mobile market, see Market Conditions. According to the local survey,

Pending home sales rose with many first-time buyers taking advantage of historically good housing affordability conditions, according to the National Association of REALTORS^®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,¹ a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, increased 3.2 percent to 84.6 from a level of 82.0 in February, and is 1.1 percent higher than March 2008 when it was 83.7.

According to a report from the University of South Alabama Center for Real Estate Studies –

The number of sales increased between March and April from 298 to 303 while the average sale price increased from $144,396 to $150,824. The average days on the market increased by 4 to 89.The highest volume of sales remains in the 0-$99,000 bracket with 85. The volume of sales in the $200.000-$300,000 range showed the largest gain of 17 rising from 33 to 50. Further, the median sale price increased by $9,500 to $134,000. The Mobile market showed signs of improvement even through almost all categories are performing at levels lower than April, 2008.

The highest volume of sales was in the $100,000-$149,000 price range followed by the $99,999 and under bracket. Only four properties over $.5 million sold which is the same volume as April. Properties priced at $150,000 and under are 59.8 percent of the current single-family market. Properties priced under $200,000 make up 77.8 percent of all sales.

The U.S. average sales price increased from $210,500 to $211,300, the median increased also from $168,200 to $169,900, and the number of sales increased 27.5 percent. Further, the available inventory declined slightly to 9.6 months. Although these numbers slow improvements from February to March, they are still below the levels for March, 2008.

A historical panel meets next week to discuss moving the Middle Bay Lighthouse some 15 miles to Battleship Memorial Park, restoring it and putting it on permanent display.

The 124-year-old, storm-lashed lighthouse still stands in Mobile Bay a year after the Alabama Lighthouse Association called for moving it onshore. The familiar landmark could be restored on dry land if the Alabama Historical Commission approves the move. It meets on Tuesday. For more, see Panel to discuss moving Middle Bay Lighthouse - WLOX-TV and WLOX ...

The metro area encompassing east and south Baldwin County could be among the fastest-growing spots in the nation in the years ahead, with the population booming to 232,985 by 2025, according to projections published this month by Bizjournals.

That’s an increase of 43.7 percent, one of the stronger rates among 250 areas ranked by Bizjournals, the online division of American City Business Journals, which has 41 publications.

The Mobile metro area, meanwhile, was listed among the slow growers, climbing in population by just 2.24 percent.

“Projections are just projections, of course,” said Daphne Councilman Ron Scott. “But it’s true that this area has a lot going for it in the long haul. People have been trying to come the to Eastern Shore forever, and that’s not going to change soon.”

G. Scott Thomas of Bizjournals, the reporter who compiled the data, said his population forecasts were made using U.S. Census Bureau data and estimates reported from 2000 to 2008. For the full story see Bizjournals predicts Eastern Shore growth – al.com.

From Al.com,

Forbes magazine named Mobile as one of the “Best Cities in America for Recession Recovery” this week.

The rankings cite the projected gross domestic product of metropolitan areas across the U.S., unemployment figures, home prices, incomes and affordability data.

Forbes notes that having diverse industries, like Mobile’s aerospace, maritime, health care and hospitality, were reasons for an anticipated quick recovery.

According to a report in Business Week the number of U.S. homebuyers who agreed to purchase a previously occupied home in April posted the largest monthly jump in nearly eight years, a sign that sales are finally coming to life after a long and painful slump.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of sales contracts signed in April surged 6.7 percent to 90.3, far exceeding analysts’ forecasts. It was the biggest monthly jump since October 2001, when pending sales rose 9.2 percent.

Economists were encouraged by the report, and stock indexes advanced modestly.

“This is yet another positive indication that the bottoming process is forming,” Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients. “Now if only prices would stabilize.”

The Realtors’ index was 3.2 percent above last year’s levels and has risen for three straight months after hitting a record low in January. A nearly 33 percent sales increase in the Northeast and a 9.8 percent jump in the Midwest led the overall surge. Sales contracts rose 1.8 percent in April from a month earlier in the West, but fell 0.2 percent in the South.

The big boost likely reflects the impact of a new $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers that was included in the economic stimulus bill signed by President Barack Obama in February. Since buyers need to finish their purchases by Nov. 30 to claim the credit, “we expect greater activity in the months ahead,” Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist, said in a statement.

Obviously this is great news for some areas of the country. It will be interesting to see if this trend will continue. One impact on continued increases will most likely hinge on the mortgage rates. Some industry experts are predicting rates will rise steadily over the next few months. If this happens, it could mean another downturn in the housing market and economy across the board. I think it’s important that all possible steps be taken to insure rates don’t rise above a level homebuyers can tolerate.

Recently there has been a lot of hoopla around proposed noise ordinances in downtown Mobile. I believe both sides of the argument have legitimate gripes. Some people have recommended rezoning parts of the downtown area. But is that alone the answer?

First let me look at this issue from the bar owners' perspective. Since the rebirth of downtown, the bars have played a major role in bringing people to that area. The bars aligned with the growing number of restuarants and art venues provide a major entertainment district.  The police now have a major presence on weekend nights and usually quell any blatant nuisances and disorderly conduct. So, it appears for the most part the situation with the bars is under control.

The bar district covers most of downtown Mobile from Royal Street on the East to Washington Street on the West side of town. And most of the downtown area is currently zoned commercial. The alcohol laws in Mobile are unrestrictive to a degree. Bars with private memberships can stay open and serve alcohol all night. Since the bars played a major role in the revitalization of downtown, then why should a noise ordinance b e imposed upon them? A noise ordinance may hurt business in an already economic downtown.

But on the other hand, how are Realtors, for instance, supposed to successfully encourage people to invest in new condos or townhomes downtown? Whenever I show property downtown, one of the first questions is, "how bad is the noise from the bars?" Now bar owners will argue people who move downtown should expect noise. Well, yes, that is true to an extent. But homeowners also expect to go to bed at a decent hour and sleep undisturbed through the night. And why should'nt people be allowed to live downtown and have that opportunity without being blasted out of their beds with noise from the bars?

So I truly think a compromise is needed. I believe portions of downtown Mobile should be rezoned residential without the option for commercial use. Give Dauphin Street to the bars, but return streets such as St. Francis, St. Michael, and others back to the people. Impose some noise restrictions or new laws, laws whereby bars are not allowed to stay open all night regardless.

It's time for people to move back downtown. It's time to bring more vitality downtown. It's time for the city council to examine the issues and make the strong decisions necessary to insure both successful residential growth and business expansion.

From an AP Report this morning,

The Alabama Legislature has gone along with a change made by Gov. Bob Riley to a stimulus bill that would spend $6 million in state funds to help spur home sales in the state.

The approval of the governor's executive amendment means the bill will become law.

The House voted 95-0 Tuesday for a minor change made by the governor to the bill concerning how payments would be made. The Senate had approved the governor's executive amendment last week.

The bill was sponsored by Sen. Lowell Barron of Fyffe. It would take $6 million from an oil and gas revenue savings account and put it into a fund to guarantee mortgages administered by the Alabama Housing Finance Authority.